US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

46 of 69 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 99¢ · $766K held · ended Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$766.4K

Combined PnL

$76.1K

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 99.3¢

+24% since entry · 45 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

46 of 69 top traders (67%)23 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes46 traders

Total Value$761.5K

Total Shares768,335

Combined PnL+$143.5K

No23 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares461,567

Combined PnL$-67.5K

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

46 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Late

947h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 78% · 27

Aligned

sharpYes 90% · 20

Aligned

ctrNo 68% · 22

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 66% · 32

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 69% · 49

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Yesavg 84.1¢	$231.0K	$272.2K	+$41.2K	47% 474-534 (1008)
CA carlos484	Yesavg 78.8¢	$61.5K	$77.3K	+$15.8K	61% 20-13 (33)
JSG3	Yesavg 82¢	$54.3K	$65.6K	+$11.3K	58% 14-10 (24)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740	Yesavg 77.4¢	$50.0K	$64.1K	+$14.1K	54% 325-279 (604)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Yesavg 93.3¢	$53.9K	$57.3K	+$3.4K	67% 751-378 (1129)
M4 m4ds	Yesavg 49.4¢	$11.4K	$22.8K	+$11.5K	72% 411-157 (568)
YU yuahldj	Yesavg 46.8¢	$9.1K	$19.3K	+$10.2K	— 9-2 (11)
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 78¢	$13.5K	$17.2K	+$3.6K	50% 5949-6040 (11989)
tetrase	Yesavg 73.7¢	$11.2K	$15.0K	+$3.8K	61% 839-543 (1382)
balthazar	Yesavg 71.8¢	$10.1K	$13.9K	+$3.8K	61% 21342-13633 (34975)
LU LulaVaiPerder	Yesavg 96.1¢	$11.5K	$11.9K	+$368.57	76% 317-102 (419)
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j	Yesavg 74.2¢	$8.5K	$11.3K	+$2.8K	64% 85-47 (132)
ON onekey02	Yesavg 99.2¢	$10.9K	$10.9K	-$5.5	98% 415-10 (425)
Valen9	Yesavg 59.3¢	$4.7K	$9.5K	+$4.8K	60% 406-274 (680)
scout	Yesavg 83.1¢	$8.5K	$8.9K	+$421.84	90% 762-81 (843)
BR browne	Yesavg 94.1¢	$7.3K	$7.5K	+$216.81	71% 173-69 (242)
MEPP	Yesavg 76¢	$5.6K	$6.6K	+$1.0K	64% 632-352 (984)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 87.6¢	$5.7K	$6.5K	+$800.71	89% 4652-547 (5199)
WA wan123	Yesavg 53.3¢	$2.7K	$5.0K	+$2.3K	39% 196-304 (500)
AN Ante25	Yesavg 76¢	$3.8K	$5.0K	+$1.2K	— 11-3 (14)
FO Folletin	Yesavg 91.8¢	$4.5K	$4.9K	+$357.14	69% 423-188 (611)
yen4u	Yesavg 83.5¢	$3.7K	$4.4K	+$689.39	86% 807-136 (943)
Roflan-ludoman	Yesavg 76.5¢	$4.5K	$4.3K	-$240.68	62% 649-396 (1045)
SB sbimbg	Yesavg 79.6¢	$3.4K	$4.1K	+$797.68	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
HE HerrieDavis	Yesavg 54.8¢	$2.8K	$4.1K	+$1.3K	36% 2085-3721 (5806)