Consensus PnL $76K · win rate 53% (636–575, n=1211) · PM monthly #476 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$76.0K
Record
636W / 575L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 1211 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1548
Source
PM monthly #476
Trades
434
Markets
1,368
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo SonegoAdolfo Vallejo $145 · now 35¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (29% of 18)
Specialties
1,059 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 49¢- College Football
+30 pts
side won 80% of 54 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +38%
- Tennis
+14 pts
side won 61% of 607 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +15%
- Soccer
+13 pts
side won 65% of 62 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 40% of 30 at an average 52¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI −11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 25% of 101)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 58% of 391)
- 50–70¢: 47%(won 64% of 501)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 91% of 66)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.