Consensus PnL $1.8K · win rate 62% (282–173, n=455) · PM monthly #683 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.8K
Record
282W / 173L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 455 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1072
Source
PM monthly #683
Trades
44
Markets
1,008
Volume
$9.7M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit $47K · now 94¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (47% of 81)
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs100 Thieves $1.4K · now 87¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
Specialties
285 settled consensus markets · held side won 48% at an average entry of 50¢- Esports
+2 pts
side won 59% of 186 · avg entry 57¢
ROI −7%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 28% of 99 at an average 38¢ entry (−9 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 7% of 56)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 37% of 75)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 61% of 100)
- 70¢ and up: 19%(won 83% of 54)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.