Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 19 of 30 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

19 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 27¢ · $95K held · ends Nov 4

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$95.0K

Combined PnL

-$574.68

Smart Money Entry

27.2¢ → 26.5¢

-2% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

19 of 30 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$35.2K

Total Shares47,511

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes19 traders

Total Value$59.5K

Total Shares226,993

Combined PnL$-2.3K

No — 37%Yes — 63%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Late

2768h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 55% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 73% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 61% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
gopfan2	Noavg 67.6¢	$12.2K	$13.3K	+$1.1K	51% 901-875 (1776)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 23¢	$11.1K	$12.7K	+$1.7K	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR	Yesavg 28.2¢	$11.8K	$10.9K	-$907.06	62% 45-28 (73)
Valen9	Noavg 72¢	$7.3K	$7.5K	+$153.95	60% 406-274 (680)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$7.0K	$6.7K	-$376.52	54% 325-279 (604)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 31.1¢	$6.3K	$5.2K	$-1.1K	40% 704-1061 (1765)
SU supersmardCTR	Yesavg 28.5¢	$4.7K	$4.1K	-$476.25	39% 46-71 (117)
FB fbet	Noavg 72¢	$561.77	$4.0K	+$153.75	57% 21-16 (37)
Warren-Buffett	Noavg 72¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$75	65% 862-465 (1327)
mountaindewd	Noavg 68.2¢	$3.4K	$3.7K	+$315.02	54% 344-290 (634)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 27.3¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$104.5	35% 35-64 (99)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 28.2¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$180.8	39% 196-304 (500)
RA RailcoolCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$3.1K	$2.6K	-$451.35	51% 86-81 (167)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 32¢	$3.2K	$2.6K	-$650	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 22.9¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$359.33	57% 766-585 (1351)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 27.8¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$99.9	36% 397-691 (1088)
TH thoodr	Noavg 75.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$22.6	96% 631-24 (655)
Ryxon21CTR	Yesavg 24.9¢	$956.36	$998.4	+$24.37	71% 318-130 (448)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 25.1¢	$921.15	$973.4	+$52.25	38% 20-32 (52)
PO poposub	Noavg 74.1¢	$878.19	$876.62	+$4.36	45% 2069-2501 (4570)
BiDiFakePollsCTR	Yesavg 30.9¢	$827.35	$710	-$117.35	58% 182-132 (314)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 26.7¢	$655.4	$650.03	-$5.37	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 26.6¢	$431.35	$423.4	-$7.95	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 69.7¢	$576.3	$416.9	+$23.36	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 71.3¢	$323.37	$325.6	+$11.98	76% 11352-3524 (14876)

gopfan2

Invested

$12,162.25

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$11,057.54

Value

$12.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

Loyalty-CrashCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,772.36

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$907.06

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

Valen9

Invested

$7,311.92

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$153.95

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Yes

Invested

$6,975.47

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$376.52

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,251.69

Value

$5.2K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

supersmardCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,698.45

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$476.25

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

fbet

Invested

$561.77

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$153.75

Record

57%

21-16 (37)

Warren-Buffett

Invested

$3,600

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$75

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

mountaindewd

Invested

$3,409.98

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$315.02

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,561.38

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$104.5

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,005.24

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$180.8

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

RailcoolCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,111.98

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$451.35

Record

51%

86-81 (167)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,200

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$650

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,237.19

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$359.33

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,219.99

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$99.9

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

thoodr

Invested

$1,195.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$22.6

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

Ryxon21CTR

Yes

Invested

$956.36

Value

$998.4

PnL

+$24.37

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$921.15

Value

$973.4

PnL

+$52.25

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

poposub

Invested

$878.19

Value

$876.62

PnL

+$4.36

Record

45%

2069-2501 (4570)

BiDiFakePollsCTR

Yes

Invested

$827.35

Value

$710

PnL

-$117.35

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$655.4

Value

$650.03

PnL

-$5.37

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$431.35

Value

$423.4

PnL

-$7.95

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ghorrock

Invested

$576.3

Value

$416.9

PnL

+$23.36

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$323.37

Value

$325.6

PnL

+$11.98

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

19 of 30 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Late

2768h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 55% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 73% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 61% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.3%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$253.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

353.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.