Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 1.9¢ · $446 held · ends Nov 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$445.72
$-2.1K
42.3¢ → 1.9¢
-95% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
117h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME melonmanm | Noavg 56.6¢ | $257.21 | $286.65 | +$29.44 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960CTR | Yesavg 47.2¢ | $2.0K | $100.88 | $-1.9K | 63% 166-99 (265) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $208.94 | $42.57 | -$166.36 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
PO poposub<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $13.96 | $14.07 | +$0.11 | 45% 2069-2501 (4570) |
 BiDiFakePollsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $3.02 | $1.55 | -$1.47 | 58% 182-132 (314) |
Invested
$257.21
Value
$286.65
PnL
+$29.44
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
Invested
$2,025.81
Value
$100.88
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
63%
166-99 (265)
Invested
$208.94
Value
$42.57
PnL
-$166.36
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Invested
$13.96
Value
$14.07
PnL
+$0.11
Record
45%
2069-2501 (4570)
BiDiFakePollsCTR<$100Invested
$3.02
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$1.47
Record
58%
182-132 (314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.