Consensus PnL $1.3M · win rate 80% (1402–346, n=1748) · PM monthly #929 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$1.3M
Record
1402W / 346L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 1748 settled
Batting Avg
49.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#429
Source
PM monthly #929
Trades
10,306
Markets
2,565
Volume
$21.8M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $10K · now 54¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (74% of 27)
Specialties
2,231 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 82¢- Esports
+7 pts
side won 90% of 1295 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +3%
- Tennis
+8 pts
side won 91% of 321 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +4%
- Crypto
+10 pts
side won 96% of 90 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 72% of 213 at an average 75¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 12% of 26)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 67% of 12)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 65% of 211)
- 70¢ and up: 89%(won 92% of 1982)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.