Consensus PnL $200K · win rate 47% (130–148, n=278) · PM monthly #58 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$200.4K
Record
130W / 148L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 278 settled
Batting Avg
88.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1344
Source
PM monthly #58
Record (90 d)
77/93 · 83%
Trades
1,235
Markets
284
Volume
$4.3M
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Alina CharaevaAlina Charaeva $31K · now 74¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (43% of 39)
Specialties
146 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 51¢- Soccer
+47 pts
side won 96% of 23 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +40%
- Tennis
+34 pts
side won 85% of 80 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +30%
- Crypto
+37 pts
side won 93% of 28 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +28%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 80% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 45%(won 79% of 66)
- 50–70¢: 45%(won 92% of 65)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 90% of 10)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.