Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alina Charaeva, while the market favors Antonia Ruzic (55%). 8 of 28 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Alina Charaeva

8 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Alina Charaeva (29%) · Alina Charaeva at 46¢ · $143K held · ends Nov 9

Antonia Ruzic55¢Alina Charaeva45¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alina Charaeva

Consensus Traders

Alina Charaeva 29%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$142.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 45.5¢

-9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlina Charaeva at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alina Charaeva

8 of 28 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Antonia Ruzic 55%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Antonia Ruzic55%

Alina Charaeva46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alina Charaeva8 traders

Total Value$63.6K

Total Shares127,348

Combined PnL-$723.54

Antonia Ruzic20 traders

Total Value$54.2K

Total Shares104,946

Combined PnL-$890.72

Alina Charaeva — 29%Antonia Ruzic — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Alina Charaeva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Antonia Ruzic) and the top 1000 (13 on Alina Charaeva) disagree here.

whaleAlina Charaeva 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpAlina Charaeva 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAntonia Ruzic 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedAntonia Ruzic 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Alina Charaeva 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Alina Charaevaavg 51.6¢	$31.8K	$31.1K	-$672.15	48% 114-123 (237)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Alina Charaevaavg 47.6¢	$16.6K	$16.6K	-$25	53% 642-562 (1204)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 48.8¢	$10.7K	$10.7K	-$33.42	54% 1108-926 (2034)
└ Antonia Ruzic leg	Antonia Ruzicavg 51.1¢	$5.2K	$5.5K	+$340.62
└ Alina Charaeva leg	Alina Charaevaavg 48.8¢	$5.5K	$5.1K	-$374.04
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Antonia Ruzicavg 53.3¢	$10.6K	$10.4K	-$168.34	46% 1354-1573 (2927)
LI LightParadox	Antonia Ruzicavg 54.2¢	$10.6K	$10.3K	-$330.07	53% 1067-963 (2030)
KK KkunnCTR	Alina Charaevaavg 51.1¢	$9.0K	$8.9K	-$109.66	42% 245-332 (577)
BA Bagwell306	Antonia Ruzicavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$49.99	57% 4149-3123 (7272)
RN1	Antonia Ruzicavg 49¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$49.12	53% 59264-51568 (110832)
MA MadridTime	Antonia Ruzicavg 53.1¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$59.09	51% 1009-957 (1966)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 49.5¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$46.45	71% 7018-2811 (9829)
└ Alina Charaeva leg	Alina Charaevaavg 49.5¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$60.3
└ Antonia Ruzic leg	Antonia Ruzicavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$13.85
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Antonia Ruzicavg 49¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$39.83	50% 2650-2646 (5296)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Antonia Ruzicavg 49.5¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$29.48	51% 23562-22316 (45878)
└ Antonia Ruzic leg	Antonia Ruzicavg 49.5¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$1.57
└ Alina Charaeva leg	Alina Charaevaavg 49.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$31.05
0X 0xNuttawut	Antonia Ruzicavg 50.3¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$57.65	50% 1158-1148 (2306)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Antonia Ruzicavg 50.5¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$1.87	47% 1304-1499 (2803)
└ Antonia Ruzic leg	Antonia Ruzicavg 50.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$32.2
└ Alina Charaeva leg	Alina Charaevaavg 49.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$34.07
65 6512395314597884CTR	Alina Charaevaavg 48.3¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$50	51% 4536-4397 (8933)
LI Lilybaeum	Antonia Ruzicavg 49.6¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$6.04	61% 13978-9022 (23000)
nigiri99CTR	Alina Charaevaavg 48.4¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$98.19	46% 8320-9718 (18038)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Antonia Ruzicavg 50.7¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$14.26	46% 1283-1491 (2774)
└ Antonia Ruzic leg	Antonia Ruzicavg 50.7¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$22.35
└ Alina Charaeva leg	Alina Charaevaavg 48.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$8.09
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Antonia Ruzicavg 51.3¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$137.75	51% 1759-1681 (3440)
HI hi774c	Antonia Ruzicavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$13.67	50% 4940-4862 (9802)
VeryLucky888	Antonia Ruzicavg 50.9¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$15.3	58% 44835-32630 (77465)
tradecraft	Antonia Ruzicavg 50.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$45.77	51% 6251-6010 (12261)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Alina Charaevaavg 47¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$32.25	54% 199-167 (366)
SE sentrio	Antonia Ruzicavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$51.01	50% 25310-25028 (50338)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 47.5¢	$1.7K	$945.68	+$9.78	47% 14510-16080 (30590)
└ Alina Charaeva leg	Alina Charaevaavg 47.5¢	$527.5	$505.05	-$16.67
└ Antonia Ruzic leg	Antonia Ruzicavg 50.3¢	$406.52	$440.63	+$26.45

robustmstCTR

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$31,769.64

Value

$31.1K

PnL

-$672.15

Record

48%

114-123 (237)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$16,650

Value

$16.6K

PnL

-$25

Record

53%

642-562 (1204)

LimousinARB<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$10,690.28

Value

$10.7K

PnL

-$33.42

Record

54%

1108-926 (2034)

Both legs:

Antonia Ruzic$5,171.0651.1¢+$340.62

Alina Charaeva$5,519.2248.8¢-$374.04

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$10,595.9

Value

$10.4K

PnL

-$168.34

Record

46%

1354-1573 (2927)

LightParadox

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$10,582.57

Value

$10.3K

PnL

-$330.07

Record

53%

1067-963 (2030)

KkunnCTR

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$9,012.12

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$109.66

Record

42%

245-332 (577)

Bagwell306

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$4,999

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$49.99

Record

57%

4149-3123 (7272)

RN1

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$4,984

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$49.12

Record

53%

59264-51568 (110832)

MadridTime

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$4,958.3

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$59.09

Record

51%

1009-957 (1966)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$4,265.55

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$46.45

Record

71%

7018-2811 (9829)

Both legs:

Alina Charaeva$2,880.5549.5¢+$60.3

Antonia Ruzic$1,38550¢-$13.85

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$3,903.14

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$39.83

Record

50%

2650-2646 (5296)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$3,653.48

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$29.48

Record

51%

23562-22316 (45878)

Both legs:

Antonia Ruzic$2,560.6849.5¢-$1.57

Alina Charaeva$1,092.849.1¢+$31.05

0xNuttawut

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$3,621.68

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$57.65

Record

50%

1158-1148 (2306)

GC-PARB<$100

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$2,890.61

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.87

Record

47%

1304-1499 (2803)

Both legs:

Antonia Ruzic$1,631.4750.5¢-$32.2

Alina Charaeva$1,259.1449.2¢+$34.07

6512395314597884CTR

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$2,899.85

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$50

Record

51%

4536-4397 (8933)

Lilybaeum

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$2,847.09

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$6.04

Record

61%

13978-9022 (23000)

nigiri99CTR

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$2,658.14

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$98.19

Record

46%

8320-9718 (18038)

NM-PARB<$100

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$2,504.77

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$14.26

Record

46%

1283-1491 (2774)

Both legs:

Antonia Ruzic$1,442.4750.7¢+$22.35

Alina Charaeva$1,062.2948.9¢-$8.09

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$2,514.23

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$137.75

Record

51%

1759-1681 (3440)

hi774c

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$1,339.63

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.67

Record

50%

4940-4862 (9802)

VeryLucky888

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$1,775.77

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$15.3

Record

58%

44835-32630 (77465)

tradecraft

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$1,314.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$45.77

Record

51%

6251-6010 (12261)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$1,010.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$32.25

Record

54%

199-167 (366)

sentrio

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$1,061.07

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$51.01

Record

50%

25310-25028 (50338)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$1,729.05

Value

$945.68

PnL

+$9.78

Record

47%

14510-16080 (30590)

Both legs:

Alina Charaeva$527.547.5¢-$16.67

Antonia Ruzic$406.5250.3¢+$26.45

Research grade

NeutralAlina Charaeva at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Alina Charaeva

8 of 28 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Antonia Ruzic 55%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Alina Charaeva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Antonia Ruzic) and the top 1000 (13 on Alina Charaeva) disagree here.

whaleAlina Charaeva 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpAlina Charaeva 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAntonia Ruzic 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedAntonia Ruzic 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Alina Charaeva 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alina Charaeva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.