Consensus PnL $3.8K · win rate 81% (130–30, n=160) · was PM monthly #834 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$3.8K
Record
130W / 30L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 160 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#417
Source
PM monthly #834
Trades
69
Markets
170
Volume
$796.9K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $28K · now 89¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $1.4K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?No $685 · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (41% of 17)
Specialties
118 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 94¢- Soccer
+10 pts
side won 100% of 42 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +2%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 100% of 16 · avg entry 96¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 95% of 20 at an average 98¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 67% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 100% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 92%(won 99% of 109)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.