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6F
Consensus PnL $19K · win rate 45% (25–31, n=56) · was PM monthly #765 · holds 4 consensus positions
0x6fbbc363...8a97a41aPolymarket
⚖️Arb🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$18.9K
Record
25W / 31L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 56 settled
Batting Avg
46.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1995
Source
PM monthly #765
Trades
129
Markets
119
Volume
$211.7K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?No $9.8K · now 84¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?No $2.6K · now 13¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (38% of 8)
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $529 · now 45¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes $31 · now 73¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
46 settled consensus markets · held side won 57% at an average entry of 51¢- Crypto
+6 pts
side won 63% of 35 · avg entry 57¢
ROI −1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 15% of 13)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 40% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 86% of 7)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 88% of 16)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.