Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?
9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 45¢ · $116K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
🔬
Research candidate
No
12
No 75%
$115.8K
$10.4K
40.1¢ → 44.5¢
+11% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 45%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR Premarbet618CTR | Noavg 35.9¢ | $36.6K | $56.2K | +$13.0K | — 2-0 (2) |
 manekineko | Yesavg 62.5¢ | $15.9K | $14.2K | $-1.8K | 84% 365-71 (436) |
OD odsownerCTR | Noavg 43.6¢ | $10.4K | $10.6K | +$215.84 | 55% 153-127 (280) |
 gatonekkiCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $8.8K | $9.5K | +$751.2 | 63% 22-13 (35) |
TR tradexplorerCTR | Noavg 60.3¢ | $12.0K | $8.9K | $-3.1K | 60% 291-194 (485) |
 AllByMyseIfCTR | Noavg 36¢ | $6.4K | $7.6K | +$1.4K | 65% 671-357 (1028) |
 madrilCTR | Noavg 43¢ | $4.4K | $4.5K | +$153.27 | 26% 95-276 (371) |
MU muddyrc | Yesavg 43.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$384.26 | 51% 230-218 (448) |
TR troimCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $820 | $890 | +$70 | 36% 397-691 (1088) |
PH phdcapitalCTR | Noavg 73¢ | $1.5K | $889.99 | -$570 | 94% 259-17 (276) |
SA sansui1CTR | No | $528.9 | $528.9 | -$154.12 | 49% 38-39 (77) |
OR OrwellFactory | Yesavg 63¢ | $315 | $280 | -$37.5 | 57% 352-262 (614) |
Invested
$36,645.98
Value
$56.2K
PnL
+$13.0K
Record
—
2-0 (2)
manekinekoInvested
$15,924.64
Value
$14.2K
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
84%
365-71 (436)
Invested
$10,384.23
Value
$10.6K
PnL
+$215.84
Record
55%
153-127 (280)
gatonekkiCTRInvested
$8,775.86
Value
$9.5K
PnL
+$751.2
Record
63%
22-13 (35)
Invested
$12,013.14
Value
$8.9K
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
60%
291-194 (485)
AllByMyseIfCTRInvested
$6,383.57
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
65%
671-357 (1028)
madrilCTRInvested
$4,393.86
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$153.27
Record
26%
95-276 (371)
Invested
$1,360.89
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$384.26
Record
51%
230-218 (448)
Invested
$820
Value
$890
PnL
+$70
Record
36%
397-691 (1088)
Invested
$1,459.99
Value
$889.99
PnL
-$570
Record
94%
259-17 (276)
Invested
$528.9
Value
$528.9
PnL
-$154.12
Record
49%
38-39 (77)
Invested
$315
Value
$280
PnL
-$37.5
Record
57%
352-262 (614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.