Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (88%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 13¢ · $26K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 38%
$25.7K
$-7.1K
31.9¢ → 12.5¢
-61% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
22 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 manekineko | Yesavg 85.5¢ | $11.0K | $11.3K | +$256.18 | 84% 365-71 (436) |
 AllByMyseIfCTR | Noavg 15.4¢ | $5.1K | $4.1K | -$963.35 | 65% 671-357 (1028) |
MA Marioy | Yesavg 60¢ | $2.6K | $3.8K | +$1.2K | 81% 250-58 (308) |
SA sansui1CTR | Noavg 49¢ | $323.61 | $2.6K | $-2.1K | 49% 38-39 (77) |
TR tradexplorerCTR | Noavg 41.2¢ | $8.5K | $2.6K | $-5.9K | 60% 291-194 (485) |
MU muddyrc | Yesavg 67.8¢ | $880.98 | $1.1K | +$256.5 | 51% 230-218 (448) |
 XieGuangKun | Yesavg 33.6¢ | $63 | $175.99 | +$112.99 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
 TimeTraveler | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $35.02 | $105.41 | +$70.39 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
manekinekoInvested
$10,990.3
Value
$11.3K
PnL
+$256.18
Record
84%
365-71 (436)
AllByMyseIfCTRInvested
$5,093.97
Value
$4.1K
PnL
-$963.35
Record
65%
671-357 (1028)
Invested
$2,560.43
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
81%
250-58 (308)
Invested
$323.61
Value
$2.6K
PnL
$-2.1K
Record
49%
38-39 (77)
Invested
$8,494.51
Value
$2.6K
PnL
$-5.9K
Record
60%
291-194 (485)
Invested
$880.98
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$256.5
Record
51%
230-218 (448)
XieGuangKunInvested
$63
Value
$175.99
PnL
+$112.99
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
TimeTravelerInvested
$35.02
Value
$105.41
PnL
+$70.39
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.