Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 83¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
6
No 67%
$8.0K
$895.94
71.8¢ → 82.5¢
+15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 83%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
4877h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alanhutton | Noavg 76¢ | $4.2K | $4.6K | +$274.78 | 68% 335-158 (493) |
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985 | Noavg 65¢ | $1.3K | $1.7K | +$320 | 64% 154-88 (242) |
 Moond | Noavg 67¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$304.15 | 69% 1137-513 (1650) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 65.3¢ | $129.9 | $167.99 | +$38.1 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $85.32 | $41.08 | -$41.08 | 18% 3833-17382 (21215) |
SA sansui1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $12.24 | $12.24 | +$0 | 49% 38-39 (77) |
alanhuttonInvested
$4,180.1
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$274.78
Record
68%
335-158 (493)
Invested
$1,299.99
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$320
Record
64%
154-88 (242)
MoondInvested
$1,164.46
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$304.15
Record
69%
1137-513 (1650)
Invested
$129.9
Value
$167.99
PnL
+$38.1
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$85.32
Value
$41.08
PnL
-$41.08
Record
18%
3833-17382 (21215)
Invested
$12.24
Value
$12.24
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
38-39 (77)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.