Consensus PnL $49K · win rate 55% (388–314, n=702) · PM monthly #116 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$49.3K
Record
388W / 314L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 702 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1452
Source
PM monthly #116
Trades
43
Markets
734
Volume
$3.4M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Eagles $9.8K · now 48¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Spread: Jets (-7.5)Raiders $2.1K · now 75¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
Specialties
461 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 55¢- College Football
+39 pts
side won 92% of 63 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +33%
- NBA
+35 pts
side won 91% of 85 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +38%
- NFL
+35 pts
side won 92% of 38 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +21%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 32% of 25)
- 30–50¢: 35%(won 75% of 161)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 87% of 200)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 97% of 75)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.