Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Eagles, while the market favors Commanders (54%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Commanders (-5.5)

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (77%) · Eagles at 47¢ · $73K held · ends Nov 2

Commanders54¢Eagles46¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 77%

Total Value

$73.5K

Combined PnL

$652.29

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 46.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Commanders 54%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Commanders54%

Eagles47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eagles10 traders

Total Value$68.8K

Total Shares147,624

Combined PnL+$558.03

Commanders3 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,800

Combined PnL+$94.26

Eagles — 77%Commanders — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpEagles 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrEagles 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Eaglesavg 46.1¢	$27.4K	$27.7K	+$256.27	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Eaglesavg 46¢	$15.4K	$15.5K	+$166.94	50% 2544-2531 (5075)
scootergeneCTR	Eaglesavg 46¢	$9.7K	$9.8K	+$105	54% 380-324 (704)
VeryLucky888CTR	Eaglesavg 47¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	+$45.54	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Eaglesavg 47¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$0	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
HI hi774cCTR	Eaglesavg 46.7¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$20.71	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
MO mooseborzoii	Commandersavg 52¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$75	50% 1188-1183 (2371)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Eaglesavg 46.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$2.65	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Commandersavg 53¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$18.87	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Eaglesavg 47¢	$950.34	$950.34	-$0	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
SL slimjoeCTR	Eaglesavg 46¢	$139.84	$142.88	+$1.52	51% 6525-6188 (12713)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 46.7¢	$50.01	$50.29	+$0.82	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Commandersavg 51¢	$13.26	$13.78	+$0.39	54% 3099-2669 (5768)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Eagles

Invested

$27,438.96

Value

$27.7K

PnL

+$256.27

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Eagles

Invested

$15,358.62

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$166.94

Record

50%

2544-2531 (5075)

scootergeneCTR

Eagles

Invested

$9,660

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$105

Record

54%

380-324 (704)

VeryLucky888CTR

Eagles

Invested

$4,254.7

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$45.54

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Eagles

Invested

$4,199.45

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

hi774cCTR

Eagles

Invested

$3,968.42

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$20.71

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

mooseborzoii

Commanders

Invested

$2,600

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$75

Record

50%

1188-1183 (2371)

HerdoniaCTR

Eagles

Invested

$2,262.22

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$2.65

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

JAMJAMJAM4

Commanders

Invested

$2,000.22

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$18.87

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

Forecastication2CTR

Eagles

Invested

$950.34

Value

$950.34

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

slimjoeCTR

Eagles

Invested

$139.84

Value

$142.88

PnL

+$1.52

Record

51%

6525-6188 (12713)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$50.01

Value

$50.29

PnL

+$0.82

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Commanders

Invested

$13.26

Value

$13.78

PnL

+$0.39

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Commanders 54%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpEagles 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrEagles 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.