Spread: Jets (-7.5)
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (88%) · Raiders at 75¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Raiders
8
Raiders 88%
$39.2K
-$286.55
75.3¢ → 74.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralRaiders at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
83h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Raidersavg 75.5¢ | $19.0K | $18.7K | -$247.35 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
 VeryLucky888 | Raidersavg 75¢ | $9.8K | $9.7K | -$64.94 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Raidersavg 75¢ | $7.5K | $7.5K | +$50 | 47% 2574-2862 (5436) |
 scootergene | Raidersavg 76¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | -$43.04 | 54% 380-324 (704) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Raidersavg 76¢ | $760 | $750 | +$5 | 53% 5696-5031 (10727) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Jetsavg 23¢ | $227.45 | $242.28 | +$14.83 | 53% 453-396 (849) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Raidersavg 75.7¢ | $105.25 | $103.55 | -$1.7 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
SL slimjoe<$100 | Raidersavg 75¢ | $72.35 | $72.52 | +$0.63 | 51% 6525-6188 (12713) |
Invested
$18,962.99
Value
$18.7K
PnL
-$247.35
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
VeryLucky888Invested
$9,758.45
Value
$9.7K
PnL
-$64.94
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$7,500
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$50
Record
47%
2574-2862 (5436)
scootergeneInvested
$2,180.71
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$43.04
Record
54%
380-324 (704)
Invested
$760
Value
$750
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5696-5031 (10727)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$227.45
Value
$242.28
PnL
+$14.83
Record
53%
453-396 (849)
Invested
$105.25
Value
$103.55
PnL
-$1.7
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$72.35
Value
$72.52
PnL
+$0.63
Record
51%
6525-6188 (12713)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
Raiders — $18.7K
VeryLucky888
Raiders — $9.7K
0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542
Raiders — $7.5K
scootergene
Raiders — $2.1K
0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989
Raiders — $750
RollAwayTheDew
CTRJets — $242.28
LeLynxMalynx
Raiders — $103.55
slimjoe
Raiders — $72.52