Consensus PnL $105K · win rate 48% (157–167, n=324) · hand-picked wallet · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$104.9K
Record
157W / 167L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 324 settled
Batting Avg
52.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1890
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
9,245
Markets
392
Volume
$4.5M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $123K · now 96¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
Specialties
267 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 75¢- Soccer
+19 pts
side won 80% of 142 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +6%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 94% of 54 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +3%
- Crypto
+7 pts
side won 100% of 23 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 52% of 27)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 75% of 12)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 86% of 44)
- 70¢ and up: 69%(won 93% of 184)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.