Consensus PnL -$308K · win rate 48% (34–37, n=71) · was PM monthly #353 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-308.5K
Record
34W / 37L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 71 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1902
Source
PM monthly #353
Trades
45
Markets
75
Volume
$3.1M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)Broncos $47K · now 10¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Chiefs)
- Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)Dolphins $27K · now 8¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (44% of 9)
- Spread: Dolphins (-3.5)Dolphins $26K · now 5¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Patriots)
- Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Over $2.2K · now 87¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (60% of 21)
Specialties
44 settled consensus markets · held side won 77% at an average entry of 45¢- NFL
+43 pts
side won 93% of 14 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +39%
- Soccer
+24 pts
side won 64% of 22 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +14%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 17% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 36%(won 81% of 16)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 91% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.