Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)

7 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (33%) · Chiefs at 57¢ · $267K held · ended Nov 1

Chiefs57¢Broncos43¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$267.2K

Combined PnL

$-26.0K

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 57.5¢

+22% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

7 of 21 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs57%

Broncos43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs7 traders

Total Value$163.0K

Total Shares351,876

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Broncos14 traders

Total Value$98.4K

Total Shares250,451

Combined PnL$-23.4K

Chiefs — 33%Broncos — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Chiefsavg 47¢	$155.5K	$152.3K	$-3.2K	43% 561-738 (1299)
SI sinasinnerCTR	Broncosavg 45.7¢	$68.5K	$47.3K	$-21.3K	48% 28-30 (58)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$26.5K	$26.3K	-$250	53% 615-541 (1156)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$6.9K	$6.8K	-$64.93	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
0X 0x0A77exmmARB<$100	Broncosavg 53¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$52.03	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 53¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$29.48
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 46¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$81.51
LU LuckyLooCTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$6.7K	$5.5K	$-1.2K	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
VeryLucky888CTR	Broncosavg 52.7¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$126.16	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
CA cavvvy	Chiefsavg 46¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$100	— 11-7 (18)
JU justaluckydude	Chiefsavg 53.2¢	$3.6K	$4.0K	+$340.83	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Broncosavg 52.9¢	$3.4K	$2.8K	-$632.74	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$20	58% 4068-2891 (6959)
DO DolphinBaller	Chiefsavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$30	47% 100-113 (213)
AN Anon455CTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Broncosavg 59¢	$750	$750	+$0	46% 367-427 (794)
HE Herdonia	Chiefsavg 46.4¢	$440.57	$445.85	+$5.29	54% 3405-2950 (6355)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Broncosavg 46.6¢	$289.56	$264.12	-$25.44	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Broncosavg 47.7¢	$180.53	$176.4	-$4.13	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 47.7¢	$139.82	$133.42	-$6.4
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 51.6¢	$40.71	$42.98	+$2.27
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Broncosavg 51.2¢	$135.53	$120.35	-$15.18	50% 3948-3932 (7880)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Chiefsavg 47¢	$91.95	$91.95	+$0.98	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Broncosavg 53¢	$59.36	$56.56	-$2.8	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Broncosavg 51.3¢	$20.1	$19.5	-$0.6	51% 1532-1483 (3015)
GH ghorrock<$100	Chiefsavg 46¢	$6.61	$8.26	+$1.65	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Broncosavg 56¢	$8.93	$8.05	-$0.88	51% 6082-5802 (11884)

BreakTheBank

Chiefs

Invested

$155,487.3

Value

$152.3K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

sinasinnerCTR

Broncos

Invested

$68,500

Value

$47.3K

PnL

$-21.3K

Record

48%

28-30 (58)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Broncos

Invested

$26,500

Value

$26.3K

PnL

-$250

Record

53%

615-541 (1156)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Broncos

Invested

$6,883

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$64.93

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

0x0A77exmmARB<$100

Broncos

Invested

$5,624.52

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$52.03

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

Both legs:

Broncos$3,124.8853¢-$29.48

Chiefs$2,499.6446¢+$81.51

LuckyLooCTR

Broncos

Invested

$6,718.28

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

VeryLucky888CTR

Broncos

Invested

$5,305.27

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$126.16

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

cavvvy

Chiefs

Invested

$4,600

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$100

Record

—

11-7 (18)

justaluckydude

Chiefs

Invested

$3,645.94

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$340.83

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

UpTheBluesCTR

Broncos

Invested

$3,391.19

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$632.74

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Bagwell306CTR

Broncos

Invested

$2,120

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$20

Record

58%

4068-2891 (6959)

DolphinBaller

Chiefs

Invested

$1,380

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$30

Record

47%

100-113 (213)

Anon455CTR

Broncos

Invested

$1,060

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Broncos

Invested

$750

Value

$750

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

367-427 (794)

Herdonia

Chiefs

Invested

$440.57

Value

$445.85

PnL

+$5.29

Record

54%

3405-2950 (6355)

topdogbigboiCTR

Broncos

Invested

$289.56

Value

$264.12

PnL

-$25.44

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

takeormakeARB<$100

Broncos

Invested

$180.53

Value

$176.4

PnL

-$4.13

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

Both legs:

Broncos$139.8247.7¢-$6.4

Chiefs$40.7151.6¢+$2.27

NatoAlfistaCTR

Broncos

Invested

$135.53

Value

$120.35

PnL

-$15.18

Record

50%

3948-3932 (7880)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$91.95

Value

$91.95

PnL

+$0.98

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$59.36

Value

$56.56

PnL

-$2.8

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$20.1

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$0.6

Record

51%

1532-1483 (3015)

ghorrock<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$6.61

Value

$8.26

PnL

+$1.65

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$8.93

Value

$8.05

PnL

-$0.88

Record

51%

6082-5802 (11884)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

7 of 21 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.