Consensus PnL $204K · win rate 85% (173–30, n=203) · PM monthly #358 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$204.0K
Record
173W / 30L
Win Rate
85.0%
of 203 settled
Batting Avg
54.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#341
Source
PM monthly #358 + pinned
Trades
15,319
Markets
400
Volume
$34.9M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $1.1M · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
Specialties
355 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 83¢- MMA
+6 pts
side won 77% of 30 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +2%
- Economy
+4 pts
side won 93% of 14 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +3%
- Esports
+3 pts
side won 69% of 13 · avg entry 66¢
ROI 0%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 6% of 51)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 43% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 60% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 81%(won 100% of 287)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.