Consensus PnL $58K · win rate 70% (528–228, n=756) · was PM monthly #720 · holds 35 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$58.5K
Record
528W / 228L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 756 settled
Batting Avg
25.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#746
Source
PM monthly #720 + pinned
Trades
9,845
Markets
1,451
Volume
$2.8M
Top consensus positions
35 in listed consensus markets · 30 of 35 on the consensus side (86%)- Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Yes $12K · now 72¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $6.4K · now 13¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No $6.2K · now 93¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (76% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No $4.5K · now 95¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?No $4.1K · now 84¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $3.5K · now 89¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No $3.5K · now 96¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (79% of 28)
- Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?No $2.9K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
Specialties
1,005 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 70¢- Crypto
+4 pts
side won 76% of 338 · avg entry 72¢
ROI −2%
- Geopolitics
+16 pts
side won 75% of 20 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +5%
- Tennis
+2 pts
side won 72% of 50 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +10%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 15% of 55)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 43% of 54)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 62% of 352)
- 70¢ and up: 54%(won 89% of 544)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.