Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (62%) · Yes at 72¢ · $97K held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 62%

Total Value

$97.3K

Combined PnL

$18.2K

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 71.5¢

+24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$96.6K

Total Shares135,153

Combined PnL+$18.3K

No5 traders

Total Value$663.76

Total Shares2,371

Combined PnL-$177.54

Yes — 62%No — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Marcoli	Yesavg 52.1¢	$54.8K	$75.2K	+$20.4K	55% 60-50 (110)
timebrotime	Yesavg 80.7¢	$13.8K	$12.3K	$-1.5K	67% 893-435 (1328)
YU yuahldj	Yesavg 76¢	$4.5K	$4.3K	-$238.86	— 9-2 (11)
Socialista	Yesavg 74.7¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$363.09	63% 2725-1611 (4336)
WO Woohx	Yesavg 71.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$5.1	56% 113-88 (201)
probability	Yesavg 68.5¢	$554.73	$579.38	+$24.65	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR	Noavg 46.5¢	$465	$280	-$195	60% 1348-884 (2232)
TimeTravelerCTR	Noavg 17¢	$153	$252	+$103.5	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
SA salahmhCTR	Noavg 47¢	$218.64	$130.26	-$86.06	43% 323-428 (751)
RI Richidd<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$49.49	$68.02	+$18.53	46% 47-56 (103)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 71.3¢	$34.99	$35.36	+$0.37	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 32.3¢	$0.81	$0.82	+$0.01	51% 2516-2391 (4907)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 37.1¢	$0.66	$0.68	+$0.01	52% 5046-4713 (9759)

Marcoli

Yes

Invested

$54,785.15

Value

$75.2K

PnL

+$20.4K

Record

55%

60-50 (110)

timebrotime

Yes

Invested

$13,849.75

Value

$12.3K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

67%

893-435 (1328)

yuahldj

Yes

Invested

$4,538.55

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$238.86

Record

—

9-2 (11)

Socialista

Yes

Invested

$2,723.21

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$363.09

Record

63%

2725-1611 (4336)

Woohx

Yes

Invested

$1,866.12

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$5.1

Record

56%

113-88 (201)

probability

Yes

Invested

$554.73

Value

$579.38

PnL

+$24.65

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR

Invested

$465

Value

$280

PnL

-$195

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

TimeTravelerCTR

Invested

$153

Value

$252

PnL

+$103.5

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

salahmhCTR

Invested

$218.64

Value

$130.26

PnL

-$86.06

Record

43%

323-428 (751)

Richidd<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.49

Value

$68.02

PnL

+$18.53

Record

46%

47-56 (103)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.99

Value

$35.36

PnL

+$0.37

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$0.81

Value

$0.82

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

5046-4713 (9759)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.