Consensus PnL -$82K · win rate 81% (702–161, n=863) · PM monthly #652 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-82.1K
Record
702W / 161L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 863 settled
Batting Avg
44.4%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#402
Source
PM monthly #652
Trades
636
Markets
996
Volume
$36.9M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes $71K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (81% of 21)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $29K · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
Specialties
919 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 91¢- NBA
+3 pts
side won 96% of 172 · avg entry 93¢
ROI −1%
- F1
+5 pts
side won 96% of 47 · avg entry 91¢
ROI 0%
- Economy
+3 pts
side won 100% of 26 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 80% of 102 at an average 85¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 10% of 30)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 18% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 48% of 25)
- 70¢ and up: 93%(won 97% of 853)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.