Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

17 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (81%) · Yes at 100¢ · $304K held · ends Dec 6

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sun, Dec 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 81%

Total Value

$304.4K

Combined PnL

$24.9K

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 99.8¢

+13% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$304.3K

Total Shares305,087

Combined PnL+$26.5K

No4 traders

Total Value$91.45

Total Shares36,579

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Yes — 81%No — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

219 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

81% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 78% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	Yesavg 98.7¢	$119.6K	$120.8K	+$1.3K	53% 2098-1864 (3962)
TS tsekinming01	Yesavg 99.1¢	$69.0K	$70.5K	+$445.29	79% 735-199 (934)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 45.2¢	$25.2K	$37.3K	+$12.1K	71% 318-130 (448)
4751346	Yesavg 87.6¢	$21.8K	$24.1K	+$2.3K	72% 1257-483 (1740)
MO Momo63	Yesavg 99.2¢	$16.2K	$16.3K	+$89.68	93% 879-63 (942)
TY tyutgbhnm	Yesavg 98.4¢	$14.8K	$15.0K	+$203.51	53% 50-45 (95)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704	Yesavg 43.4¢	$4.2K	$11.2K	+$7.0K	60% 1348-884 (2232)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 77.2¢	$2.7K	$4.4K	+$1.4K	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Yesavg 99.6¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	+$1.01	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
Nooserac	Yesavg 58¢	$3.4K	$1.5K	+$648.65	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
CR Crock95	Yesavg 5.8¢	$34.91	$601.22	+$566.32	57% 255-194 (449)
VO vovatoxic	Yesavg 6.2¢	$20	$320.92	+$300.92	49% 70-74 (144)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 74.6¢	$98.77	$132.3	+$23.8	69% 156-69 (225)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0	$88.56	+$88.56	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Noavg 2.4¢	$901.54	$88.47	-$743.64	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
TH TheFOMCGambler<$100	Yesavg 55.7¢	$19.16	$34.29	+$15.13	76% 102-32 (134)
probability<$100	Yesavg 85.9¢	$31.14	$31.73	+$0.59	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Yesavg 74.7¢	$8.96	$11.97	+$3.01	42% 2258-3075 (5333)
ME melganisCTR	Noavg 81.3¢	$526.45	$1.71	-$524.75	75% 1597-541 (2138)
scottxia1988CTR	Noavg 61.9¢	$311.05	$1.26	-$309.79	78% 178-49 (227)
ZI ZillahstoneCTR<$100	Noavg 39.7¢	$2	$0.01	-$1.99	63% 42-25 (67)

0F62

Yes

Invested

$119,553.09

Value

$120.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

53%

2098-1864 (3962)

tsekinming01

Yes

Invested

$69,039.74

Value

$70.5K

PnL

+$445.29

Record

79%

735-199 (934)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$25,153.93

Value

$37.3K

PnL

+$12.1K

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

4751346

Yes

Invested

$21,830.64

Value

$24.1K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

Momo63

Yes

Invested

$16,227.99

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$89.68

Record

93%

879-63 (942)

tyutgbhnm

Yes

Invested

$14,759.01

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$203.51

Record

53%

50-45 (95)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704

Yes

Invested

$4,152.17

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$7.0K

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$2,684.62

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Yes

Invested

$1,954.16

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.01

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

Nooserac

Yes

Invested

$3,401.12

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$648.65

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

Crock95

Yes

Invested

$34.91

Value

$601.22

PnL

+$566.32

Record

57%

255-194 (449)

vovatoxic

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$320.92

PnL

+$300.92

Record

49%

70-74 (144)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$98.77

Value

$132.3

PnL

+$23.8

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$88.56

PnL

+$88.56

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Invested

$901.54

Value

$88.47

PnL

-$743.64

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

TheFOMCGambler<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.16

Value

$34.29

PnL

+$15.13

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

probability<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.14

Value

$31.73

PnL

+$0.59

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.96

Value

$11.97

PnL

+$3.01

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

melganisCTR

Invested

$526.45

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$524.75

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

scottxia1988CTR

Invested

$311.05

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$309.79

Record

78%

178-49 (227)

ZillahstoneCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.99

Record

63%

42-25 (67)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

219 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

81% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 78% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.