Consensus PnL -$16K · win rate 57% (56–43, n=99) · was PM monthly #718 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-15.9K
Record
56W / 43L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 99 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1358
Source
PM monthly #718
Trades
59
Markets
106
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $22K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes $15K · now 100¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (81% of 21)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex $13K · now 52¢ · in at 60¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
Specialties
63 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 67¢- Soccer
+29 pts
side won 97% of 37 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +20%
- Esports
+33 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +26%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 67% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 100% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 100% of 23)
- 70¢ and up: 48%(won 100% of 30)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.