Consensus PnL $109K · win rate 50% (1960–1927, n=3887) · was PM monthly #747 · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$108.8K
Record
1960W / 1927L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 3887 settled
Batting Avg
55.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1732
Source
PM monthly #747
Trades
2,465
Markets
4,103
Volume
$19.3M
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 13 on the consensus side (62%)- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over $3.6K · now 56¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (29% of 30)
- Will IK Start win on 2026-11-01?No $3.3K · now 59¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (43% of 15)
- Will Jong KRC Genk win on 2026-11-01?No $2.4K · now 33¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over $2.1K · now 53¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Under)
- Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under $2.0K · now 50¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (89% of 23)
- Will APO Levadiakos FC vs. Aris Thessaloniki end in a draw?No $1.5K · now 88¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- FK Austria Wien vs. SK Rapid: O/U 2.5Under $1.4K · now 50¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (86% of 8)
- FK Baltika Kaliningrad vs. FK Akron Tolyatti: O/U 2.5Over $1.0K · now 100¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Under)
Specialties
2,277 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 52¢- Soccer
+29 pts
side won 81% of 2277 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +19%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 34% of 208)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 79% of 832)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 90% of 849)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 90% of 388)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.