Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FK Baltika Kaliningrad vs. FK Akron Tolyatti: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$2.0K
-$1.37
56.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Overavg 44¢ | $863.65 | $1.0K | +$166.84 | 51% 1712-1675 (3387) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 56¢ | $1.1K | $898.49 | -$160.4 | 50% 19450-19817 (39267) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 57.1¢ | $115.14 | $112.54 | -$2.6 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Underavg 81¢ | $12 | $7.03 | -$4.96 | 59% 30677-21391 (52068) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $1.38 | $1.13 | -$0.25 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
us391Invested
$863.65
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$166.84
Record
51%
1712-1675 (3387)
Invested
$1,058.89
Value
$898.49
PnL
-$160.4
Record
50%
19450-19817 (39267)
Invested
$115.14
Value
$112.54
PnL
-$2.6
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$12
Value
$7.03
PnL
-$4.96
Record
59%
30677-21391 (52068)
Invested
$1.38
Value
$1.13
PnL
-$0.25
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.