Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (81%) · Under at 51¢ · $59K held · ends Nov 1

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 81%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$58.9K

Combined PnL

-$667.92

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 50.5¢

-3% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 16 top traders (81%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$18.6K

Total Shares38,289

Combined PnL+$114.6

Under13 traders

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares48,343

Combined PnL-$782.52

Over — 19%Under — 81%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 47¢	$10.6K	$10.8K	-$112.81	47% 2574-2862 (5436)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 52.9¢	$9.4K	$9.0K	-$431.82	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 52.8¢	$7.9K	$7.6K	-$345.23	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Overavg 47.9¢	$6.6K	$6.8K	+$217.41	53% 1155-1007 (2162)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$6.5K	$6.6K	+$59.51	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.8¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	-$26.13
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.5¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$85.64
HI hi774cARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$80.75	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$44.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$36.41
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$4.23	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$23.61
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.7¢	$738.92	$766.76	+$27.84
CA Cannae	Underavg 50.3¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$11.74	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
us391	Underavg 51¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$40.59	51% 1712-1675 (3387)
AY ay118	Underavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.3	47% 36-41 (77)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 48¢	$960	$960	+$10	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51¢	$1.5K	$883.74	+$3.9	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 48.4¢	$430.81	$433.88	+$3.07	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.4¢	$215.76	$220.77	+$5.01
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$215.05	$213.11	-$1.94
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 50¢	$355.72	$359.61	+$3.89	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
0xheavy888	Underavg 50¢	$100	$101	+$1	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 50.5¢	$202	$101	+$3	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
SL slimjoe	Underavg 50¢	$100	$100	+$1	51% 6525-6188 (12713)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$74.97	$74.58	-$0.39	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
BE berlinskies<$100	Underavg 52¢	$35	$33.65	-$1.01	58% 5891-4317 (10208)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Underavg 52¢	$11.1	$10.67	-$0.32	62% 1191-725 (1916)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$10,603.73

Value

$10.8K

PnL

-$112.81

Record

47%

2574-2862 (5436)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$9,429.24

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$431.82

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$7,905.12

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$345.23

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Over

Invested

$6,577.72

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$217.41

Record

53%

1155-1007 (2162)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,507.29

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$59.51

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Under$4,457.2950.8¢-$26.13

Over$2,05047.5¢+$85.64

hi774cARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,599.51

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$80.75

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

Both legs:

Under$4,434.5250¢+$44.35

Over$1,16548¢+$36.41

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,228.44

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$4.23

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

Both legs:

Under$2,489.5251¢-$23.61

Over$738.9247.7¢+$27.84

Cannae

Under

Invested

$2,935.03

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$11.74

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

us391

Under

Invested

$2,069.84

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$40.59

Record

51%

1712-1675 (3387)

ay118

Under

Invested

$1,230

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.3

Record

47%

36-41 (77)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$960

Value

$960

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,537.8

Value

$883.74

PnL

+$3.9

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$430.81

Value

$433.88

PnL

+$3.07

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

Over$215.7648.4¢+$5.01

Under$215.0551¢-$1.94

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$355.72

Value

$359.61

PnL

+$3.89

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$100

Value

$101

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$202

Value

$101

PnL

+$3

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

slimjoe

Under

Invested

$100

Value

$100

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

6525-6188 (12713)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$74.97

Value

$74.58

PnL

-$0.39

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

berlinskies<$100

Under

Invested

$35

Value

$33.65

PnL

-$1.01

Record

58%

5891-4317 (10208)

lonmi2511<$100

Under

Invested

$11.1

Value

$10.67

PnL

-$0.32

Record

62%

1191-725 (1916)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 16 top traders (81%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.