Consensus PnL $4.5K · win rate 43% (290–377, n=667) · PM monthly #716 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$4.5K
Record
290W / 377L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 667 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2283
Source
PM monthly #716
Record (90 d)
362/448 · 81%
Trades
285
Markets
1,017
Volume
$91.2K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Anton Rop win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?No $85 · now 99¢ · in at 99¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?No $31 · now 36¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
279 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 76¢- Esports
+5 pts
side won 89% of 19 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +6%
- Other Sports
+4 pts
side won 92% of 13 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 92% of 13 at an average 92¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 5% of 40)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 53% of 15)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 64% of 25)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 94% of 199)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.