Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 65¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 16

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$706.27

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 64.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares12,663

Combined PnL+$399.25

No5 traders

Total Value$678.03

Total Shares1,956

Combined PnL+$307.02

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

523h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hannah-Montana	Yesavg 65.1¢	$7.1K	$8.4K	+$422.08	68% 215-102 (317)
GohstCTR	Noavg 6¢	$74.79	$448.77	+$324.11	49% 740-772 (1512)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 36¢	$475.33	$164.14	-$12.32	53% 7528-6656 (14184)
tescat	Yesavg 69.5¢	$438.95	$122.01	-$11.83	57% 399-297 (696)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Yesavg 72.5¢	$72.5	$61.5	-$11	49% 1040-1098 (2138)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Noavg 34.1¢	$37.86	$35.5	-$2.36	25% 228-684 (912)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$25.44	$23.77	-$1.67	17% 1026-4959 (5985)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$6.58	$5.85	-$0.73	35% 710-1327 (2037)

Hannah-Montana

Yes

Invested

$7,148.85

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$422.08

Record

68%

215-102 (317)

GohstCTR

Invested

$74.79

Value

$448.77

PnL

+$324.11

Record

49%

740-772 (1512)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$475.33

Value

$164.14

PnL

-$12.32

Record

53%

7528-6656 (14184)

tescat

Yes

Invested

$438.95

Value

$122.01

PnL

-$11.83

Record

57%

399-297 (696)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.5

Value

$61.5

PnL

-$11

Record

49%

1040-1098 (2138)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Invested

$37.86

Value

$35.5

PnL

-$2.36

Record

25%

228-684 (912)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$25.44

Value

$23.77

PnL

-$1.67

Record

17%

1026-4959 (5985)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$6.58

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.73

Record

35%

710-1327 (2037)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

523h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.4%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.