Will Anton Rop win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $180 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$179.8
-$16.98
95.9¢ → 99.1¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VA vamosgaming | Noavg 99.1¢ | $109.9 | $109.95 | +$0.05 | 25% 228-684 (912) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $49.55 | +$5.05 | 49% 1040-1098 (2138) |
 Hannah-MontanaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $32.48 | $12.5 | -$19.98 | 68% 215-102 (317) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $8.25 | $6 | -$1.5 | 18% 4056-19002 (23058) |
 tescatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $2.4 | $1.8 | -$0.6 | 57% 399-297 (696) |
Invested
$109.9
Value
$109.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
25%
228-684 (912)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$49.55
PnL
+$5.05
Record
49%
1040-1098 (2138)
Hannah-MontanaCTR<$100Invested
$32.48
Value
$12.5
PnL
-$19.98
Record
68%
215-102 (317)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$8.25
Value
$6
PnL
-$1.5
Record
18%
4056-19002 (23058)
tescatCTR<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0.6
Record
57%
399-297 (696)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.