Consensus PnL -$339K · win rate 34% (143–279, n=422) · was PM monthly #874 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-339.2K
Record
143W / 279L
Win Rate
34.0%
of 422 settled
Batting Avg
83.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1607
Source
PM monthly #874
Record (90 d)
56/186 · 30%
Trades
9,527
Markets
453
Volume
$3.3M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 WinnerT1 $43K · now 0¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Bilibili Gaming)
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerT1 $35 · now 0¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (Bilibili Gaming)
Specialties
413 settled consensus markets · held side won 35% at an average entry of 36¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where verifly's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Esports — held side won 35% of 408 at an average 36¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 32%(won 21% of 131)
- 30–50¢: 55%(won 41% of 227)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 43% of 54)
- 70¢ and up: 0%(won 0% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.