Consensus PnL $99K · win rate 76% (4221–1368, n=5589) · PM monthly #550 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$99.5K
Record
4221W / 1368L
Win Rate
76.0%
of 5589 settled
Batting Avg
60.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#387
Source
PM monthly #550
Record (90 d)
776/945 · 82%
Trades
897
Markets
7,128
Volume
$24.7M
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Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No $1.3K · now 87¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (49% of 44)
- West Virginia vs. Texas TechTexas Tech $599 · now 86¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Spurs vs. KingsSpurs $251 · now 91¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (68% of 38)
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Connecticut HuskiesConnecticut Huskies $60 · now 98¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (84% of 20)
Specialties
5,350 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 75¢- Golf
+15 pts
side won 100% of 22 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 93% of 30 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 55% of 87 at an average 64¢ entry (−9 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 2% of 1096)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 33% of 82)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 52% of 212)
- 70¢ and up: 74%(won 97% of 3960)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.