Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

13 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold No (41%) · No at 86¢ · $63K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 41%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$62.5K

Combined PnL

$-4.7K

Smart Money Entry

74.9¢ → 86¢

+15% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 32 top traders (41%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$51.4K

Total Shares59,819

Combined PnL+$5.9K

Yes19 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares82,040

Combined PnL$-10.6K

No — 41%Yes — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

4123h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

52 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (23 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 58% · 12

Diverging

sharpNo 64% · 11

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 65% · 23

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BigBusinessPro	Noavg 74.5¢	$18.1K	$20.9K	+$2.7K	— 2-0 (2)
BMM-1	Noavg 86¢	$17.2K	$17.2K	+$0	95% 19-1 (20)
KR KrackenSruster	Noavg 52¢	$3.2K	$5.0K	+$1.8K	66% 487-255 (742)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 26.2¢	$4.5K	$2.7K	$-1.8K	38% 567-944 (1511)
MEPP	Noavg 58.6¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$345.12	64% 633-352 (985)
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 23.5¢	$3.7K	$2.4K	$-1.3K	50% 970-988 (1958)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 85¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$8.27	89% 4653-547 (5200)
RememberAmalek	Noavg 54.9¢	$862.33	$1.3K	+$475.42	56% 973-770 (1743)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 25.7¢	$2.6K	$1.3K	$-1.1K	65% 862-465 (1327)
VO vovatoxicCTR	Yesavg 45.3¢	$4.4K	$1.3K	$-3.1K	49% 70-74 (144)
Valen9CTR	Yesavg 33.4¢	$2.8K	$1.1K	$-1.6K	60% 407-274 (681)
Mr-Krabs	Noavg 80¢	$938.79	$1.0K	+$64.54	78% 574-165 (739)
SU surfCTR	Yesavg 24.4¢	$1.6K	$940.58	-$702.45	52% 381-352 (733)
-Yang-	Noavg 78¢	$552.5	$609.16	+$53.12	82% 275-61 (336)
SL SlenderMan	Noavg 50¢	$313.31	$538.89	+$225.58	72% 257-102 (359)
CR Crock95	Noavg 64¢	$303.4	$407.69	+$101.92	57% 255-194 (449)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Noavg 83.2¢	$1.1K	$343.83	-$3.59	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ No leg	Noavg 83.2¢	$215.19	$222.31	+$17.31
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.7¢	$188.4	$121.52	-$20.91
CO cocococococo	Noavg 63.5¢	$244.62	$328.91	+$84.29	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$280	$182	-$77	83% 3802-802 (4604)
KU kukubaja	Noavg 71.6¢	$143.02	$171.83	+$27.81	84% 516-99 (615)
PorxCTR	Yesavg 22.6¢	$163.24	$144.43	-$18.81	66% 1482-769 (2251)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR	Yesavg 44.8¢	$447.95	$140	-$307.95	63% 353-204 (557)
bosshogCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$230	$130	-$85	72% 1052-415 (1467)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$389.99	$130	-$244.99	57% 1114-837 (1951)
ME melganis<$100	Noavg 53¢	$53	$86	+$32.5	75% 1597-541 (2138)

BigBusinessPro

Invested

$18,089.83

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

—

2-0 (2)

BMM-1

Invested

$17,199.95

Value

$17.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

95%

19-1 (20)

KrackenSruster

Invested

$3,216.49

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,461.92

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

MEPP

Invested

$2,128.27

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$345.12

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,674.66

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

970-988 (1958)

nonkenny90

Invested

$1,405.88

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$8.27

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

RememberAmalek

Invested

$862.33

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$475.42

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,584.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

vovatoxicCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,396.43

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

49%

70-74 (144)

Valen9CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,805.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

Mr-Krabs

Invested

$938.79

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$64.54

Record

78%

574-165 (739)

surfCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,643.03

Value

$940.58

PnL

-$702.45

Record

52%

381-352 (733)

-Yang-

Invested

$552.5

Value

$609.16

PnL

+$53.12

Record

82%

275-61 (336)

SlenderMan

Invested

$313.31

Value

$538.89

PnL

+$225.58

Record

72%

257-102 (359)

Crock95

Invested

$303.4

Value

$407.69

PnL

+$101.92

Record

57%

255-194 (449)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Invested

$1,070.57

Value

$343.83

PnL

-$3.59

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

No$215.1983.2¢+$17.31

Yes$188.421.7¢-$20.91

cocococococo

Invested

$244.62

Value

$328.91

PnL

+$84.29

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Yes

Invested

$280

Value

$182

PnL

-$77

Record

83%

3802-802 (4604)

kukubaja

Invested

$143.02

Value

$171.83

PnL

+$27.81

Record

84%

516-99 (615)

PorxCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.24

Value

$144.43

PnL

-$18.81

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR

Yes

Invested

$447.95

Value

$140

PnL

-$307.95

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

bosshogCTR

Yes

Invested

$230

Value

$130

PnL

-$85

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$389.99

Value

$130

PnL

-$244.99

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

melganis<$100

Invested

$53

Value

$86

PnL

+$32.5

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 32 top traders (41%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

4123h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

52 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (23 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 58% · 12

Diverging

sharpNo 64% · 11

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 65% · 23

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.0%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.