West Virginia vs. Texas Tech
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (75%) · Texas Tech at 86¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Texas Tech
8
Texas Tech 75%
$17.4K
-$96.88
86.3¢ → 85.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralTexas Tech at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Texas Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Texas Techavg 86.4¢ | $10.2K | $10.1K | -$111.74 | 58% 47221-34058 (81279) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Texas Techavg 86¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | +$26.9 | 54% 18313-15414 (33727) |
38 38791873984189 | Texas Techavg 86.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$7.81 | 48% 62058-66943 (129001) |
PL pltrkr111 | Texas Techavg 86¢ | $616.05 | $612.79 | -$3.26 | 55% 781-652 (1433) |
 wowfarm | Texas Techavg 87¢ | $609 | $598.5 | -$10.5 | 71% 4951-1989 (6940) |
SN SnakeBall | Texas Techavg 86¢ | $245.7 | $245.88 | +$5.58 | 50% 38089-37336 (75425) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | West Virginiaavg 14.4¢ | $106.56 | $107.59 | +$3.71 | 51% 26669-25270 (51939) |
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100 | West Virginiaavg 13¢ | $6.49 | $7.24 | +$0.25 | 51% 358-345 (703) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$10,176.8
Value
$10.1K
PnL
-$111.74
Record
58%
47221-34058 (81279)
Invested
$4,625.94
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$26.9
Record
54%
18313-15414 (33727)
Invested
$1,212.69
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$7.81
Record
48%
62058-66943 (129001)
Invested
$616.05
Value
$612.79
PnL
-$3.26
Record
55%
781-652 (1433)
wowfarmInvested
$609
Value
$598.5
PnL
-$10.5
Record
71%
4951-1989 (6940)
Invested
$245.7
Value
$245.88
PnL
+$5.58
Record
50%
38089-37336 (75425)
Invested
$106.56
Value
$107.59
PnL
+$3.71
Record
51%
26669-25270 (51939)
Invested
$6.49
Value
$7.24
PnL
+$0.25
Record
51%
358-345 (703)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
VeryLucky888
Texas Tech — $10.1K
HomeRunHazard
Texas Tech — $4.6K
38791873984189
Texas Tech — $1.2K
pltrkr111
Texas Tech — $612.79
wowfarm
Texas Tech — $598.5
SnakeBall
Texas Tech — $245.88
Flaznorp
CTRWest Virginia — $107.59
0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283
CTRWest Virginia — $7.24