Consensus PnL $72K · win rate 38% (381–633, n=1014) · was PM monthly #581 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$71.7K
Record
381W / 633L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 1014 settled
Batting Avg
54.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2120
Source
PM monthly #581
Trades
24,829
Markets
4,125
Volume
$11.1M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Spirit $667 · now 81¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (50% of 39)
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit $149 · now 100¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over $62 · now 57¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will Team Yandex win PARI Universe?No $14 · now 81¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
951 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 76¢- Esports
+17 pts
side won 99% of 694 · avg entry 82¢
ROI −11%
- Tennis
+12 pts
side won 71% of 161 · avg entry 59¢
ROI −8%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 71% of 49 · avg entry 67¢
ROI −5%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 39% of 28 at an average 43¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 16% of 67)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 68% of 68)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 94% of 141)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 99% of 675)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.