Consensus PnL $77K · win rate 90% (9–1, n=10) · was PM monthly #658 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$76.8K
Record
9W / 1L
Win Rate
90.0%
of 10 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#249
Source
PM monthly #658
Trades
137
Markets
16
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No $294K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (39% of 76)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $51K · now 73¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $19K · now 99¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Yes $4.3K · now 72¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
Specialties
10 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 83¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where yuahldj's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 80%(won 100% of 8)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.