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A6
Consensus PnL -$262K · win rate 50% (258–254, n=512) · was PM monthly #834 · holds 3 consensus positions
0xa6d188fb...3020286aPolymarket
🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-262.0K
Record
258W / 254L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 512 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1753
Source
PM monthly #834
Trades
139
Markets
545
Volume
$5.1M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 3 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01?No $4.6K · now 43¢ · in at 59¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Angers SCO: O/U 2.5Under $1.9K · now 53¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-11-01?Yes $1.7K · now 50¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
259 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 52¢- Soccer
+47 pts
side won 99% of 259 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 100% of 86)
- 50–70¢: 65%(won 98% of 169)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 100% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.