Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-11-01?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 51¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$22.5K
$167.53
50¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Noavg 50¢ | $18.9K | $19.1K | +$189.01 | 49% 258-268 (526) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | -$30.89 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 50¢ | $201.46 | $203.47 | +$2.01 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $78.64 | $86.42 | +$7.78 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $38.47 | $38.47 | -$0.38 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$18,901.14
Value
$19.1K
PnL
+$189.01
Record
49%
258-268 (526)
Invested
$3,089
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$30.89
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$201.46
Value
$203.47
PnL
+$2.01
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Invested
$78.64
Value
$86.42
PnL
+$7.78
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$38.47
Value
$38.47
PnL
-$0.38
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.