Consensus PnL $232K · win rate 99% (13283–172, n=13455) · PM monthly #739 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$232.2K
Record
13283W / 172L
Win Rate
99.0%
of 13455 settled
Batting Avg
41.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#83
Source
PM monthly #739
Trades
777
Markets
13,719
Volume
$109.1M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 9 on the consensus side (67%)- SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over $10K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (33% of 19)
- Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under $2.0K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over $999 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over $987 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢against the consensus (Under)
- Viborg FF vs. AC Horsens: O/U 0.5Over $467 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes $332 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢against the consensus (No)
- Young Boys Bern vs. FC Zurich: O/U 5.5Over $239 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 0.5Over $178 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢against the consensus (Under)
Specialties
10,000 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 99¢- College Basketball
+11 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 89¢
ROI 0%
- Finance
+5 pts
side won 73% of 15 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 98% of 276 at an average 98¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 16% of 86)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 67% of 18)
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 80% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 99%(won 100% of 9886)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.