SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$328.74
82¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $886.8 | $616.78 | -$447.77 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $172.8 | $345.46 | -$5.09 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $714 | $271.32 | -$442.68 | |
ZX zxc368 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $512.06 | $512.31 | +$0.26 | 98% 13363-214 (13577) |
FO foooool | Yesavg 51¢ | $119.2 | $166.13 | +$46.93 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
 HRTrading | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $83.83 | $103.75 | +$19.92 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $36.4 | $43.23 | +$6.83 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $102.71 | $40.66 | -$62.05 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $6.85 | $14.27 | +$0.07 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Noavg 50.7¢ | $228.99 | $0.23 | -$228.77 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 46.7¢ | $112.05 | $0.12 | -$111.93 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
Invested
$886.8
Value
$616.78
PnL
-$447.77
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
Both legs:
Invested
$512.06
Value
$512.31
PnL
+$0.26
Record
98%
13363-214 (13577)
Invested
$119.2
Value
$166.13
PnL
+$46.93
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
HRTradingInvested
$83.83
Value
$103.75
PnL
+$19.92
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$36.4
Value
$43.23
PnL
+$6.83
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$102.71
Value
$40.66
PnL
-$62.05
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$6.85
Value
$14.27
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$228.99
Value
$0.23
PnL
-$228.77
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$112.05
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$111.93
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.