SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 100¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

Total Value

$18.3K

Combined PnL

$-4.2K

Smart Money Entry

92.7¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$18.2K

Total Shares18,226

Combined PnL+$515.76

Under11 traders

Total Value$40.8

Total Shares32,738

Combined PnL$-4.8K

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$13.2K	$13.2K	+$6.61	98% 13363-214 (13577)
TO torta.tech	Overavg 70¢	$1.9K	$2.8K	+$538.59	62% 8225-4938 (13163)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 78¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	-$32.3	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Overavg 78¢	$79.83	$101.4	+$0.75	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 10.7¢	$37.99	$14.11	-$23.88	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 79¢	$7.98	$10.09	+$2.12	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
NooseracCTR	Underavg 11¢	$2.2K	$10	$-2.2K	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 21.8¢	$184.96	$8.91	-$178.65	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
RN1CTR	Underavg 22.1¢	$1.2K	$2.63	$-1.2K	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 20.4¢	$860.04	$2.11	-$857.93	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 21.5¢	$164.08	$1.88	-$162.2	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
HRTradingCTR	Underavg 11.1¢	$123.44	$0.56	-$122.88	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$1.1	$0.45	-$1.1	52% 7503-6793 (14296)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$47.5	$0.13	-$47.38	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$4.65	$0.03	-$4.62	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$1.15	$0.01	-$1.15	51% 1529-1481 (3010)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$13,198.04

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$6.61

Record

98%

13363-214 (13577)

torta.tech

Over

Invested

$1,933.4

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$538.59

Record

62%

8225-4938 (13163)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$1,680.1

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$32.3

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

LeLynxMalynx

Over

Invested

$79.83

Value

$101.4

PnL

+$0.75

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.99

Value

$14.11

PnL

-$23.88

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$7.98

Value

$10.09

PnL

+$2.12

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

NooseracCTR

Under

Invested

$2,200

Value

$10

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$184.96

Value

$8.91

PnL

-$178.65

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,164.78

Value

$2.63

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$860.04

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$857.93

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$164.08

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$162.2

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

HRTradingCTR

Under

Invested

$123.44

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$122.88

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$1.1

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.5

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$47.38

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.65

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.62

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.15

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.