Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$13.1K
$-3.3K
0.7¢ → 0.5¢
-17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $6.4K | $-3.1K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.5¢ | $6.3K | $6.3K | +$1.56 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $436 | $270.86 | -$190.28 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $33.06 | $44.16 | +$11.1 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yes | $4.29 | $4.29 | +$0 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$6.4K
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
balthazarInvested
$6,335.29
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$1.56
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$436
Value
$270.86
PnL
-$190.28
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$33.06
Value
$44.16
PnL
+$11.1
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$4.29
Value
$4.29
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.