Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Ohio and Texas?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$-3.1K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.4¢

-29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares1,576,842

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+33 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$6.4K	$-3.1K	43% 572-748 (1320)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$608.09	$589.87	+$59.38	53% 1174-1057 (2231)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0	$40	-$33.11	56% 15375-11924 (27299)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$17.32	$11.25	-$6.07	56% 973-770 (1743)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.71	$1.06	+$0.35	66% 431-219 (650)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$6.4K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

43%

572-748 (1320)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$608.09

Value

$589.87

PnL

+$59.38

Record

53%

1174-1057 (2231)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$40

PnL

-$33.11

Record

56%

15375-11924 (27299)

RememberAmalekCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.32

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$6.07

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.71

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0.35

Record

66%

431-219 (650)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+33 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6535.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

6635.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.