Consensus PnL $46K · win rate 71% (391–157, n=548) · PM monthly #635 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$46.4K
Record
391W / 157L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 548 settled
Batting Avg
52.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#692
Source
PM monthly #635
Trades
1,038
Markets
875
Volume
$2.4M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 9 on the consensus side (33%)- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $471 · now 19¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?Yes $55 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?Yes $51 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes $15 · now 6¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $10 · now 27¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $5 · now 6¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?Yes $3 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?Yes $3 · now 1¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
491 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 72¢- Crypto
+15 pts
side won 100% of 16 · avg entry 85¢
ROI −3%
- Politics
+7 pts
side won 79% of 57 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +3%
- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 73% of 143 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 40% of 15 at an average 46¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 5% of 96)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 36% of 28)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 75% of 44)
- 70¢ and up: 66%(won 98% of 323)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.