Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$6.0K
$-3.9K
0.7¢ → 0.4¢
-38% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $5.7K | $-3.8K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $387.85 | $306.98 | -$38.08 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yes | $9 | $9 | -$6.59 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
 themagicofcinemaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.05 | $0.08 | +$0.03 | 66% 431-218 (649) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0 | $0.01 | +$0.01 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$5.7K
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
Invested
$387.85
Value
$306.98
PnL
-$38.08
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
$9
PnL
-$6.59
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.08
PnL
+$0.03
Record
66%
431-218 (649)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0.01
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.