Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$7.0K
$174.42
0.6¢ → 0.4¢
-21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yes | $6.4K | $6.4K | +$0 | 43% 570-741 (1311) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 40% 704-1063 (1767) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $29.5 | $36 | +$6.5 | 41% 1988-2806 (4794) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $382.59 | $26.87 | +$170.24 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $17.32 | $15 | -$2.32 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
Invested
$6,436.61
Value
$6.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
570-741 (1311)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
704-1063 (1767)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$29.5
Value
$36
PnL
+$6.5
Record
41%
1988-2806 (4794)
Invested
$382.59
Value
$26.87
PnL
+$170.24
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$17.32
Value
$15
PnL
-$2.32
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.