Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Kansas and Texas?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$-6.6K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.3¢

-62% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares1,459,709

Combined PnL$-6.6K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$3.6K	$-6.0K	44% 577-748 (1325)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$78.12	$25	-$53.12	56% 15515-12123 (27638)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$14.11	$17.54	+$3.42	50% 1220-1233 (2453)
LolakisCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$2.88	$9.76	-$6.29	61% 670-428 (1098)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yes	$7.69	$7.69	+$0	45% 2314-2840 (5154)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$8.81	$2.82	-$5.99	17% 1026-4952 (5978)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.05	$1.31	+$0.26	52% 1154-1067 (2221)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.48	$0.15	-$522.37	35% 105-199 (304)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-6.0K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.12

Value

$25

PnL

-$53.12

Record

56%

15515-12123 (27638)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.11

Value

$17.54

PnL

+$3.42

Record

50%

1220-1233 (2453)

LolakisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.88

Value

$9.76

PnL

-$6.29

Record

61%

670-428 (1098)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.69

Value

$7.69

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

2314-2840 (5154)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$5.99

Record

17%

1026-4952 (5978)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0.26

Record

52%

1154-1067 (2221)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$522.37

Record

35%

105-199 (304)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7596.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

7696.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.