Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Ohio?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 100¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 14%

Total Value

$16.5K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares10,000

Combined PnL-$5

Yes6 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares1,447,973

Combined PnL$-3.6K

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 99.6¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	-$5	56% 15515-12123 (27638)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.5K	$6.4K	$-3.1K	44% 577-748 (1325)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$7.66	$41.09	+$33.43	50% 1220-1232 (2452)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$55.11	$32.17	-$22.94	45% 2314-2839 (5153)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$8.81	$5.07	-$3.73	17% 1023-4939 (5962)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.89	$0.89	+$0	52% 1154-1067 (2221)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.61	$0.35	-$519.43	35% 104-196 (300)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$10,000

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$5

Record

56%

15515-12123 (27638)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,536.54

Value

$6.4K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.66

Value

$41.09

PnL

+$33.43

Record

50%

1220-1232 (2452)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.11

Value

$32.17

PnL

-$22.94

Record

45%

2314-2839 (5153)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$3.73

Record

17%

1023-4939 (5962)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.89

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1154-1067 (2221)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$519.43

Record

35%

104-196 (300)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.