Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Texas?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $377 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$376.59
$175.96
0.1¢ → 0.3¢
+114% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $82.81 | $248.44 | +$165.63 | 43% 572-748 (1320) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 99.1¢ | $183.09 | $54.16 | +$0.9 | 56% 14473-11230 (25703) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $32 | $48 | +$16 | 41% 1988-2806 (4794) |
11 11122CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $15.24 | $18.5 | +$3.26 | 43% 1401-1820 (3221) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $17.32 | $7.5 | -$9.82 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
Invested
$82.81
Value
$248.44
PnL
+$165.63
Record
43%
572-748 (1320)
Invested
$183.09
Value
$54.16
PnL
+$0.9
Record
56%
14473-11230 (25703)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$32
Value
$48
PnL
+$16
Record
41%
1988-2806 (4794)
Invested
$15.24
Value
$18.5
PnL
+$3.26
Record
43%
1401-1820 (3221)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$17.32
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$9.82
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.